FIFA World Cup: England vs Croatia 17.06.2026 Betting Preview

By Espinho Santos · World Cup 2026 Analyst

No other fixture in the first round carries quite this much baggage. England and Croatia met in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, where Modrić’s side broke English hearts with a 2-1 extra-time win. They met again at Euro 2020, England winning 1-0. And now, on Wednesday, June 17, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, they meet a third time in a major tournament — likely the last time a 40-year-old Modrić will face England on the biggest stage. Group L provides the backdrop. History provides the weight.

England - Croatia: a game from the World CUP 26.

England Team News & Preview

Thomas Tuchel takes England to their first World Cup, having replaced Gareth Southgate after the Euro 2024 final defeat to Spain. The German coach has brought a more direct, structured approach to the national team and his record in charge — including a 5-0 thrashing of Serbia — suggests he has galvanised a squad that had begun to stagnate. England arrive in Dallas with a settled group and no significant injury absentees.

The question marks are around selection rather than fitness. Harry Kane leads the attack with 70 international goals, and Bukayo Saka is confirmed fit after his injury scare. The bigger debate is the role of Jude Bellingham: the Real Madrid midfielder has had an inconsistent club season and an indifferent relationship with Tuchel, who has spoken publicly about where he fits best. Morgan Rogers of Aston Villa has been outstanding under Tuchel and may start ahead of him. Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson are expected to anchor the midfield. Marcus Rashford, now at Barcelona, provides pace and unpredictability from wide areas. Tuchel has named a 26-man squad without major absentees, and England’s depth — particularly in midfield and attack — is as strong as it has been heading into any major tournament.

Croatia Team News & Preview

Zlatko Dalić has been here before — and so has his captain. Luka Modrić, at 40 and now at AC Milan, captains Croatia at a sixth World Cup, matching Ronaldo and Messi as the only male players to achieve that feat. His reading of the game and ability to control tempo remain extraordinary even at this age, and Dalić has built an entire system around protecting him while maximising his influence. This is almost certainly his final major tournament, and the Croatian squad will play with a freedom that comes from having nothing left to prove.

Around Modrić, the squad is genuinely strong. Joško Gvardiol returns from a fractured shin that kept him out for five months, having made his comeback for Manchester City in May and been declared fit by Dalić. Mateo Kovačić provides the work rate and technical quality alongside his City teammate. Andrej Kramarić leads the attack after six qualifying goals, while veteran Ivan Perišić, at 37, remains an option from the left. Young midfielders Luka Sučić and Martin Baturina represent the next generation auditioned alongside the departing maestro.

History and What It Means

England lead the overall head-to-head record, but Croatia have beaten them in every meaningful moment — the 2018 semi-final being the defining one. England were the better side for large parts of that game and have outgrown that squad considerably since. Tuchel’s side represent a different England: more direct, more defensively organised, less reliant on individual inspiration.

Croatia’s blueprint for success has always been the same: survive the early pressure, let Modrić control the tempo, and make the game ugly in the second half. If England cannot score in the first hour, history suggests Croatia know exactly what to do.

  • England are unbeaten in their last eight competitive matches under Tuchel, including the 5-0 win over Serbia
  • Croatia have never lost their World Cup opener across six previous appearances
  • Bellingham’s role — starter or bench — is the most significant selection question Tuchel faces heading into June 17

Betting Verdict

England are the clear favourites on squad depth, physical quality and recent form. Tuchel has improved this side significantly, and the combination of Kane, Saka and Rice gives them a platform to win this comfortably. Croatia will be competitive, and Modrić will make them hard to beat, but the talent gap has grown considerably since 2018, and Gvardiol’s return from injury means his match sharpness remains a question mark.

Betting Tip: England to Win & Under 2.5 Goals

A narrow England victory is the most probable outcome. Croatia will make this uncomfortable, and Modrić will give them a foothold in the game, but Tuchel’s side should have enough quality to win — most likely by a single goal.