FIFA World Cup: Netherlands vs Japan 14.06.2026 Betting Preview
By Espinho Santos · World Cup 2026 Analyst
Netherlands vs Japan kicks off Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Sunday, June 14 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. On paper, the Dutch are clear favourites. In reality, this is exactly the kind of game Japan have been circling since the draw. They knocked out Germany and Spain in Qatar. They beat the Netherlands in a friendly as recently as 2023. Koeman’s side have injury problems all over the pitch. This one is trickier than it looks.
Netherlands Team News
The Dutch went unbeaten through European qualifying and reached the Euro 2024 semi-finals. There is plenty of talent here. Virgil van Dijk captains the side and is still one of the best defenders on the planet. Fifteen of the 26-man squad play their club football in the Premier League. On paper, Koeman has plenty to work with.
The injury list, though, is hard to ignore. Xavi Simons is out for the whole tournament — he ruptured his ACL at Tottenham in April, and that is a major creative loss. Matthijs de Ligt had back surgery. Stefan de Vrij also misses out. That is two first-choice centre-backs gone before a ball is kicked. Jurriën Timber makes the squad but has not featured since March with a groin problem. Memphis Depay is in too, despite picking up a thigh injury at Corinthians. He only came off the bench days before the squad was announced. Nobody is quite sure how sharp he is. Cody Gakpo and Tijjani Reijnders are the players who will have to carry this team. Both are capable. But the defensive situation heading into this opener is messy.
Japan Team News
Japan go into this tournament in a decent run of form. They have made the knockout stage in each of their last three World Cups. In Qatar, they beat Germany and Spain before losing on penalties to Croatia. Coach Hajime Moriyasu has quietly assembled one of the better-organised sides in Asia, and their European-based squad is more than capable of competing with stronger nations.
The problem is who is missing. Kaoru Mitoma pulled up with a hamstring injury in a Brighton league game just days before the squad was named. Moriyasu ruled him out for the whole tournament. That hurts. Mitoma was Japan’s best attacker and had just scored the winner against England at Wembley. Takumi Minamino is also absent — he tore his ACL back in December. Losing both wide forwards is a significant blow to how Japan like to play. Takefusa Kubo now carries most of the creative responsibility. He is good enough for that job, but the margin for error is slimmer without Mitoma alongside him. Wataru Endo captains the side from midfield and brings Liverpool experience to the engine room. Ayase Ueda, the Eredivisie top scorer, leads the line. Japan will be organised and difficult to beat. Getting goals without Mitoma is the real test.
Head-to-Head Analysis
These two have met three times. The Netherlands have won two of those, with a 2–2 friendly draw in 2013 the only time Japan avoided defeat. The one previous World Cup meeting was at the 2010 tournament in South Africa — a 1–0 win for the Dutch. Japan, however, have shown they have no fear of European opposition. They beat the Netherlands in the 2023 Kirin Challenge Cup, and that result will sit in the back of Moriyasu’s mind going into this game.
Key trends:
- Japan have beaten at least one top-ten ranked European side at each of the last three World Cups
- The Netherlands have dropped points in their opening group game at two of their last three World Cup tournaments
- Both Japan wins in Qatar came from behind — they are a side that grows into games rather than settles them early
Overall, this shapes up as a competitive, nervy affair where Japan are capable of making the Dutch deeply uncomfortable.
Betting Verdict
The Netherlands should win this. Van Dijk and Gakpo are the standout names and the Dutch simply have more quality across the pitch. But Japan are not here to make up the numbers. Moriyasu will set his side up to be hard to break down, and without Mitoma the Dutch may find the game tighter than they want. The injury situation at the back adds to the uncertainty. A close Dutch win feels right, but backing a cricket score here would be a mistake.
Betting Tip: Netherlands to Win and Under 2.5 Goals
Netherlands to win, but don’t expect goals. Japan will make this uncomfortable, and a makeshift Dutch backline is not going to keep a clean sheet without a fight. One goal could well be enough to settle it.