FIFA World Cup: Tunisia vs Netherlands 25.06.2026 Betting Preview

By Espinho Santos · World Cup 2026 Analyst

There is no jeopardy left for Tunisia heading into this Group F closer at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday, June 25. Back-to-back defeats — a 5-1 loss to Sweden followed by a 4-0 defeat to Japan — have already ended their World Cup, and the manager who oversaw those results has since been sacked. The Netherlands, by contrast, arrive on the back of a 5-1 demolition of Sweden and sit level with Japan at the top of the group on four points. Pride is the only thing left for Tunisia. Top spot is very much alive for the Dutch.

Tunisia Team News

Tunisia’s tournament has unravelled quickly and badly. The 5-1 opening defeat to Sweden was followed by an even more chastening 4-0 loss to Japan, a combination of results that ended their hopes of reaching the round of 32 with a game still to play. The fallout was immediate: coach Sabri Lamouchi was dismissed within a day of the Japan defeat, leaving the squad to be managed on an interim basis for the remainder of the tournament. There is little tactical context left to analyse beyond a team that has simply been outclassed twice in a row.

Whoever takes interim charge faces an unenviable task: motivating a squad that has nothing left to play for against a Netherlands side firmly in form. Expect changes to personnel given the situation, with younger or fringe players possibly given an opportunity now that qualification is mathematically impossible. The only realistic ambition for Tunisia here is restoring some pride and avoiding a third consecutive heavy defeat heading out of the tournament.

Netherlands Team News

The Netherlands have been thoroughly impressive after a shaky opening draw with Japan, following it up with a ruthless 5-1 win over Sweden that took them level on points with Japan at the top of Group F. Koeman’s side now know that finishing top of the group — which carries real benefit for the round of 32 draw — is firmly in their own hands heading into the final round of fixtures. A win here, regardless of what happens in the Japan-Sweden game, gives them the strongest possible position.

The attacking players who were so clinical against Sweden will be keen to maintain that form against a Tunisia side already eliminated and potentially undergoing internal changes. There is no reason for the Dutch to take their foot off the pedal, given the importance of finishing top of the group for seeding purposes. No fresh injury concerns have emerged from the Sweden win, and Koeman is expected to field a strong starting eleven given what is at stake for his own side.

The Context

This fixture sits at two extremes: a team with nothing left to play for against a team motivated by genuine tactical incentive. Historically, dead-rubber opponents can occasionally produce surprising resistance through sheer freedom from pressure, but Tunisia’s underlying form — conceding nine goals across two matches — offers little evidence that resistance is likely here.
Key trends:

• Tunisia have conceded nine goals in their first two matches, the worst defensive record of any side remaining in the tournament
• The Netherlands scored five against Sweden and sit level on points with Japan at the top of the group
• Tunisia’s managerial change adds further uncertainty to a side already lacking any competitive incentive

Betting Verdict

The Netherlands should win this comfortably. Tunisia’s defensive record across the first two matches is alarming, and a side already eliminated, recently sacked their coach, and facing a Dutch team still fighting for top spot has little going in its favour. Koeman’s side have shown they can be ruthless in front of goal when the opportunity presents itself, and there is every incentive for them to press home that advantage here.

Betting Tip: Netherlands to Win and Over 2.5 Goals

A comfortable Netherlands victory with goals to spare looks the most probable outcome. Tunisia’s defensive issues are unlikely to be resolved at this stage of the tournament, and a 3-0 or 4-1 scoreline would not be surprising given the context on both sides.