FIFA World Cup: Turkey vs USA 25.06.2026 Betting Preview

By Espinho Santos · World Cup 2026 Analyst

Türkiye vs United States is, in pure terms, a dead rubber for one side and a free hit for the other — but don’t expect that to make this Group D finale at SoFi Stadium any less tense. The USA have already secured their place in the round of 32 after beating Paraguay and Australia, and Pochettino’s side go into Thursday, June 25 with six points from two and a real chance of taking top spot in the group. Türkiye, on the other hand, lost their opener and then ground out a narrow win to stay alive. For them, this is genuinely win-or-go-home.

Turkey vs USA in a game from the World Cup 26

Türkiye Team News

Türkiye got their tournament back on track with a hard-fought win over Paraguay after the opening defeat to Australia. The performance was not always pretty, but Montella’s side did what they needed to do when it mattered most. Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız finally started to look like the attacking force many expected before the tournament, while Hakan Çalhanoğlu continued to dictate the tempo from a deeper role. The mentality now needs to carry over into a match against considerably stronger opposition than Paraguay.

The scoreline against Paraguay will have eased some of the pressure on this group, but Montella knows a repeat of the Australia performance — strong on the ball, toothless in front of goal — would end Türkiye’s tournament here. Çalhanoğlu remains the conductor in midfield and his distribution will be key against a USA side capable of pressing high. Güler’s set-piece quality offers a route to goal even if open play proves difficult. No fresh fitness concerns have emerged from the Paraguay win, which at least gives Montella a fully available squad to choose from for the biggest game of the group phase.

United States Team News

There is almost nothing left to play for in terms of qualification, but plenty still to play for in terms of seeding and momentum. The USA beat Australia to make it two wins from two, a result that secured their knockout spot with a game to spare. Pochettino now has the rare luxury of being able to rest players or experiment with his system without any real cost, even if he is unlikely to take that approach lightly given the importance of building rhythm.

Christian Pulisic has been excellent across the first two matches and will want to continue his strong form into the knockout stages regardless of rotation elsewhere. Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams have controlled midfield battles against both Paraguay and Australia, giving Pochettino real confidence in his core structure. Pochettino may choose to rotate his goalkeeper or give minutes to squad players given the lack of jeopardy, but the head coach has stressed the importance of maintaining winning habits. No fresh injuries have been reported following the Australia win.

What’s at Stake

This fixture decides who tops Group D, which matters significantly for the round of 32 draw and the path that follows. The USA’s six points already guarantee progress, but Pochettino will want to finish the group unbeaten given how the seeding could shape an easier or harder route through the bracket. For Türkiye, simple arithmetic applies: anything less than a win ends their World Cup, regardless of what happens elsewhere in the group.
Key trends:

  • The USA have scored six goals and conceded just two across their first two matches, the best defensive and attacking record in Group D
  • Türkiye needed a battling display to beat Paraguay after being outplayed by Australia in their opener
  • Pochettino’s side have no pressure on this result, which historically can cut either way — relaxed performances or unexpected rotation-induced slip-ups

Betting Verdict

This is genuinely tricky to assess given the contrasting stakes. The USA have been the best team in the group by a distance and their attacking quality through Pulisic should trouble any Turkish defence. However, dead-rubber psychology is real, and Pochettino may field a weaker side than the one that demolished Australia. Türkiye, conversely, will be fully focused and fully motivated, with everything to play for and nothing to lose. That combination of factors makes a measured, competitive contest more likely than another USA rout.

Betting Tip: Both Teams to Score

Expect goals at both ends given the contrasting motivations and likely team selections. Türkiye’s desperation for a result should see them push forward more than usual, while the USA carry more than enough quality to score even with changes to the side. A 2-1 or 2-2 scoreline looks the most probable outcome here.